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"Credit Card Limit Adjudication: A Contrafactual Regression Study" by Matthew Wander (TD Bank)

Credit Card Limit Adjudication: a Contrafactual Regression Study

The purpose of this talk is to discuss the intersection of big data and business particularly as it impacts the banking sector. This talk will discuss the major issue of applied machine learning and AI techniques to credit card adjudications, a major opportunity area for the banking industry. In fact in the future more and more loan decisions will be made algorithmically, with extraordinary implications for the consumers of these products.

For TD Bank this presents us with a unique opportunity to improve access to these produces as well as fairness in the decision making process. While this is more of an applied rather than theoretical talk, it will focus on a number of aspects of modeling and business decision making. In particular it will focus on the key tenet of data science that one should not intercede in the very thing you are attempting to predict with your model. Unfortunately, many business decisions do precisely that. As such techniques are required to keep the model improving making sure that the new data it is receiving is actually "new". This is where contrafactual regression comes in. While it involves sub-optimal decision making from a business perspective it allows for the best possible business outcome for a given strategy.